US Oil Prices Set for More Chaos as Iran War Rages Into Its Third Straight Week

Energy markets are preparing for another volatile session as the Iran conflict continues into its third week, with US oil prices expected to remain deeply unstable. Analyst Patrick De Haan has put forward projections of $3.80 to $3.85 per gallon at the pump, while cautioning that $4 gasoline is not far off. The sustained military campaign has fundamentally reshaped the near-term outlook for American energy consumers.
The conflict began on February 28 when the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran, triggering an immediate reaction in global oil markets. Within three weeks, the national average pump price has risen from under $3 to $3.70 per gallon, a 23% jump that has squeezed household budgets. The pace of price increases has surprised even seasoned energy market observers.
Strikes on Kharg Island last Friday, a major Iranian petroleum hub, sent fresh tremors through global supply chains. Iran’s ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to keep roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply off the global market. Brent crude yo-yoed between $103 and $106 per barrel Monday, while US crude fluctuated near $94 after flirting with $100 over the weekend.
The price shock has hit California particularly hard, with the state averaging over $5 per gallon and some Los Angeles stations charging above $8. Diesel prices for freight and rail transport could soar to $5.15 per gallon, threatening to inflate the cost of consumer goods. Top oil company executives, including Exxon’s Darren Woods, have warned the White House directly about the risks of further supply tightening and speculative trading activity.
Despite Monday’s modest stock market gains, broader economic anxiety remains elevated. Oil company shares have surged to all-time highs since the conflict began, even as Wall Street grapples with the wider fallout. The ultimate resolution of the energy crisis hinges almost entirely on the military and diplomatic trajectory of the US-Israel-Iran standoff.