Poland’s Civic Coalition (KO) continues to be the largest political entity, but a recent poll indicates that Prime Minister Donald Tusk might face challenges in securing a legislative majority if elections were to take place at present. The survey results show that KO has garnered 27.3% support, a slight drop from 28.7% in the previous poll. Meanwhile, Law and Justice (PiS) experienced a 2.8 percentage point increase, bringing them to 20.6%, while Confederation climbed to 14.1%.
The poll further revealed that Confederation of the Polish Crown stands at 8.4%, the Left at 7.1%, and Development Plus at 6.5%. However, Poland 2050 and the Polish People’s Party (PSL), both part of the current governing coalition, have fallen below the electoral threshold. These figures suggest a complicated political landscape for forming a majority government.
Based on these projected results, a coalition between KO and the Left would secure approximately 198 seats, falling 33 seats short of the 231 needed for a majority. On the other hand, a potential alliance between PiS, Confederation, and Development Plus would also not reach a majority, with an estimated 224 seats. Including Confederation of the Polish Crown could elevate the right-wing bloc to about 262 seats, potentially shifting the balance of power.
It is important to note that the poll was conducted before recent news involving Polish Olympic Committee president Radosław Piesiewicz and a luxury Patek Philippe watch. Therefore, the survey does not account for any political repercussions stemming from this controversy.